CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM AS OCCUPANCY AND REVENUE BEGIN TO STABILIZE
Wednesday 12th November 2025
As the tourism industry transitions into the 2025–2026 high season, the ABHTA has compiled preliminary performance projections from a sample of small to mid-range and large properties across Antigua and Barbuda. The findings reveal a mixed start to the winter season, with early signs of recovery expected to strengthen by January 2026.
Smaller properties are experiencing a soft start to the season, with occupancy showing a year-over-year decline of 7% to 8% in November and 3% to 15% in December. Despite the lower booking volumes, Average Daily Rate (ADR) has trended upward between 1% and 19%, reflecting ongoing efforts to sustain rate integrity.
While higher ADRs have helped cushion revenue losses, total revenue remains down approximately 4% heading into the peak period. Encouragingly, forward bookings for January 2026 show promise, with some properties anticipating double-digit revenue growth driven by improved occupancy and a more stable ADR environment.
Key Insights:
Revenue down 4% through November and December, but January shows early recovery.
U.S. and U.K. markets remain the strongest source of demand.
Villa and guesthouse sectors continue to heighten competition.
Unusually high cancellation rates point to growing market volatility and traveler uncertainty.
For larger resorts, November 2025 occupancy is down between 4% and 22% compared to the previous year, with ADR also declining 4% to 20%. The downward trend highlights continued pricing pressures following a challenging summer and fall.
December’s outlook is showing mixed performance, with occupancy varying from a 1% decline to a 17% increase, but ADR remains 10% to 12% lower than last year. While some properties are seeing stabilization in demand heading into the holidays, price sensitivity remains evident.
Looking ahead, January 2026 presents a more positive picture, with occupancy projected to rise 14% to 18% year-over-year, signaling renewed traveler confidence.
However, ADR recovery is lagging, still projected to fall 4% to 18%, suggesting the focus must now shift to rebuilding rate strength as demand returns.
Key Observations:
Early booking campaigns, especially in Canada, have boosted demand but pressured ADR.
External influences such as sargassum seaweed, weather-related concerns, airline schedule changes, and U.S. travel uncertainties have affected booking behavior.
Rate recovery remains the central focus as occupancy gains momentum in January.
Across both segments, the start of the 2025–2026 winter season reflects a cautious but improving outlook. While November and December are tracking below 2024 levels in occupancy and rate, January signals a potential turning point as demand from key international markets strengthens. The ABHTA notes that the industry’s resilience continues to shine through as hoteliers balance competitive pricing, manage external challenges, and position Antigua and Barbuda for sustained growth in the months ahead.
